![]() In fact, this effect even obscures the regional existence of charismatic carnivores such as striped hyaenas ( Hyaena hyaena) and leopards ( Panthera pardus Can, 2001, 2002, 2004 Can and Lise, 2004 Table 1). Rediscovery of species that are incorrectly considered to be extinct aren’t limited to the minute or the obscure, for example non-vascular plants, invertebrates, fungi and microorganisms whose lack of “charisma” has denied them research focus. ![]() Declaring a species extinct prematurely is sufficiently common to have a name, indeed there are two: Romeo’s error ( Collar, 1998) and the Lazarus effect ( Keith and Burgman, 2004). The problem is not only that diagnosing extinction is difficult ( Roberts, 2006) but also that an unknown number of species are becoming extinct before they have been described by science ( Keith and Burgman, 2004).Ĭonservation has another problem. However, recent mathematical models confirm that this is a serious underestimate ( Tedesco et al., 2014). According to the IUCN, of the 71,576 species assessed, only 860 have become extinct in the wild ( Pimm et al., 2014). This knowledge gap impedes conservation and increases extinction risk ( Turvey et al., 2015). Since ecologists do not know what exists, they are obviously poorly placed to know what is being lost. Even for popular and relatively large animals such as mammals, birds, and amphibians, taxonomic catalogues are still incomplete ( Lees and Pimm, 2015). The discipline of ecology and conservation is encumbered by a surprisingly large quantity of missing or incomplete information about the number of species, their distributions and status ( Pimm et al., 2014). Against the backdrop of the current unprecedented rapid biodiversity decline, we recommend that researchers should be alert of the cognitive biases involved in species assessments and in conservation at large. For example, the formation of independent and specific teams to unearth implicit assumptions and weaknesses in assessments, and to question the group thinking of the species assessors. To mitigate these factors when assessing the global status of species threatened by extinction, we suggest that increased awareness of this type of cognitive bias could facilitate the introduction of additional measures in relevant conservation initiatives and in IUCN Red List assessments. ![]() The case of the Caspian tiger demonstrates the cognitive bias of the Dunning-Kruger effect in action and the potential implications for conservation experts who are engaged in remotely evaluating contemporary species distributions. Considering that compelling evidence which suggests that Caspian tigers existed in Turkey perhaps up until early 1990s (some 40 years after international scientific community considered the species extinct) it is reasonable to posit that conservationists missed a historical opportunity to save the species. In this study, based on a review of historical records and testimonies from local communities, we review the case of Caspian tiger ( Panthera tigris virgata), a species we consider was prematurely declared globally extinct in 1950s. The premature declaration of a species as extinct has been reported across different taxonomic groups and is commonly referred to as Romeo’s error or the Lazarus effect. 3Department of Natural Sciences, Ecology and Environment Research Centre, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, United Kingdom.2World Animal Protection, London, United Kingdom.1Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Ankara University, Ankara, Turkey.
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